Big data: Rodri’s influence on Manchester City

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When Pep Guardiola says “Rodri is the best central midfielder in the world”, there are very good reasons to listen. The Manchester City manager may be a little biased, given he is talking about one of his own players. But coming from a serial winner like Guardiola — a man who excelled as a holding midfielder in his own playing days — that judgement carries great significance.

A world-class pivot, Rodri has become more and more influential in the opposition half, as Guardiola has acknowledged: “Near the box he is very dangerous,” he has said of the Spanish international. ”He loves to get into the final yards, dribble and shoot.”

This greater involvement in City’s attacking play made Rodri the most influential central midfielder in the world in 2023. He was not only the lynchpin of an all-conquering City side, but also of the Nations League-winning Spanish national team. Here, The Coaches’ Voice highlights the statistics that back up Guardiola’s praise.

Early years

Rodri burst out of Villarreal’s academy as a replacement for the club’s defensive midfield mainstay, Bruno Soriano. After Soriano sustained a serious knee injury in May 2017, Rodri — who had already broken into the senior side — cemented his place in the first-team. His heat map at Villarreal showed that he played a mainly defensive, holding-midfield role in those early years.

After two outstanding seasons (78 appearances and two goals) at El Madrigal, Rodri was signed by Atlético Madrid. Diego Simeone — a talented and combative midfielder in his playing days — turned to him to fill a midfield void created by the retirement of Tiago Mendes a year earlier.

Rodri duly adapted to Simeone’s style, which is based on protecting the goal with little distance between both players and lines. This undoubtedly enabled him to develop the defensive side of his game, as he made 47 appearances for Atlético in the 2018/19 season.

Move to Manchester City

In 2019, his move to Guardiola’s Manchester City and the Premier League was a serious challenge for the then 23-year-old. In the pivot position, he had to adapt to the high-possession and intense counter-pressing game demanded by Guardiola. 

Since then, there has been a noticeable statistical improvement in his recoveries per game near the opposition goal (see the graphic above). This culminated in an exceptional performance in the 2022/23 season, when his performances were a key component of Manchester City’s historic treble.

If we look at interceptions, Rodri has remained largely consistent during his time at City. But an improvement in the 2022/2023 season stands out, when he doubled his number of interceptions to an average of 4.3 per game.

Evolving his influence

Rodri has consistently been a high-performing defensive midfielder. More recently, though, his game has evolved to encompass more of an attacking element.

Under Simeone at Atlético, he took an average of 0.5 shots per game from inside the box. At Manchester City, that figure has increased season after season, reaching an average of more than one shot on target per game in the 2022/23 campaign. That more than doubled his output from his first season under Guardiola.

Meanwhile, his xG highlights his growth, both in quantity of shots and his decision-making near goal. In the 2022/23 season, he reached 4.15 accumulated xG in Premier League matches. That means he not only took more shots on goal, but they had a higher probability of ending in the back of the net.

Attacking threat

In Rodri’s early days at City, he had a much more defensive role, contributing less in attack than he had at Villarreal and Atlético. In his one season in Madrid, he contributed 7.43 per cent of the team’s shots per game. This dropped to 3.7 per cent in his first season as a City player.

In the 2022/23 season, his greater attacking presence resulted in him contributing 7.5 per cent of City’s shots per game. Although his four goals were three fewer than he registered in 2021/22, they were more decisive – not least his winner in the Champions League final, which followed his opener against Bayern in the quarter finals.

Rodri has the ability to alternate between close and long passes. During his time with City, he has averaged 10 per cent of the total passes his team has played per game. This figure grew in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons, to 12 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively.

His passes near the opposition area, from 2019/20 to 2022/23, increased to an average of 19.6 per cent of City’s total. For comparison, in his sole Atlético campaign that figure was 18.8.

In the 2022/23 season, he ranked sixth in assists for City, with six. That tripled his number from the 2021/22 season.

The most influential pivot in the Premier League

Rodri’s importance to City takes on even greater significance when compared with the statistics of the Premier League's leading pivots in 2022/23: Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle), Moisés Caicedo (Brighton in 2022/23, before moving to Chelsea), Declan Rice (West Ham in 2022/23, and currently at Arsenal), Jorginho (Arsenal) and Casemiro (Manchester United).

Rodri’s passing accuracy, which reached 91.5 per cent in 2022/23, put him well above his contemporaries, none of whom reached 90 per cent. Caicedo was the best of the rest, with 88.7 per cent.

Digging deeper, Rodri executed 42.4 medium-distance passes (between 15 and 30 metres) per game. With long-distance passes (over 30 metres), he made 11 per game, which is particularly impressive compared to his Premier League rivals. Rice, second in this statistic, averaged 8.9 long-distance passes per game.

Rodri stood out with a Premier League-leading total of 2,831 passes in 2022/23. The City player was also the midfielder with the most deep through balls – 265 in total, with an average of 8.2 per game.

For passes that led to a shot in just a few subsequent actions, Brazilian Bruno Guimarães stood out with an average of 3.63 per game. Rodri, however, was second with 2.85.

Out of possession, Rodri averaged 2.07 tackles per game. This figure was the fewest among the leading Premier League pivots in 2022/23. For tackles won to keep possession, however, Rodri was third, on 1.3 per game.

At 6ft 3ins, his height gives him an advantage when dealing with aerial balls. In the 2022/23 Premier League campaign, he won an average of 2.23 aerial duels per game. The next best among the division’s leading pivots was Caicedo, with 1.06. Rodri’s ratio of success with aerial balls was a commanding 69.2 per cent.

All these figures reflect his ability to cover a large area of the pitch and his physical prowess. Looking at data from the 2022/23 Champions League, he was in the top three for most distance covered, totalling 134.8km.

In the 2023/24 season, his influence on City’s play has perhaps been illustrated as much by his absence. In three games without him due to suspension in October 2023, the team lost in the EFL Cup at Newcastle, and in the Premier League to Wolves and Arsenal. They lost again when he missed the trip to Aston Villa in December, due to another suspension.

All of which adds meaning to the words Guardiola uttered after City’s 4-0 Champions League demolition of Real Madrid. “Everyone talks about Erling Haaland, but without Rodri it wouldn’t be possible.”

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Author: The Coaches' Voice